Friday, January 18, 2008

Conference Championship Picks

Well, I was feeling pretty good about my "take all the home favorites" last Saturday as Green Bay dismsantled Seattle. Then I preceded to lose the next 3 games. Not good times.

So this week I am taking both the road dogs. Pats as a 14 point favorite over the Chargers is just silly. Fourteen Points? There is no team in the history of the NFL that should be a 14 point favorite over the Chargers. Second, I think Green Bay is overrated. In conclusion, the Chargers and the Giants to cover.

Last Week Record: 1-3

Overall Playoff Record: 4-4


Friday, January 11, 2008

Divisional Playoff Picks

Well last week was a pretty good week. I went 3-1. The only game I got wrong was the Bucs game and I got it horribly wrong. After the first quarter I was about 100% confident in my pick and then they just fell apart. It was sad to watch. Garcia played awful, refusing to throw the ball more than 10 yards in the air. It was like watching a high school quarterback. I think the Bucs need to draft a franchise quarterback next year or trade for Donovan McNabb. I would prefer the latter. Knowing Gruden's penchant for veterans it seems like Mcnabb could be a good fit. He is also mobile and could play the Rich Gannon role to perfection in Gruden's offense.

On to this weeks picks.

Seattle at Green Bay (-7.5)

Seattle's defense looked solid last week. But the offense looked really bad. Hasselbeck was woefully inaccurate and Shaun Alexander has lost everything. Maurice Morris is serviceable but that is about all you can give him. They have to travel to Lambeau and play a Packers team that had a week off to rest and possesses better talent on the offensive side of the ball. The Packers corners should be able to contain Branch and Hackett. I just don't see how this team could beat the the Packers in Green Bay. I mean they barely got by a mediocre Redskins team with a 40 year old QB in Seattle. It' possible that Seattle loses by less than 7.5 but that is much more unlikely than the Packers winning by 10 or more. So although I hate the Packers I have to take them to cover.

Jacksonville at New England (-13)

Brady is going to carve up the Jacksonville secondary. I could see him putting up 5 TDs on them. I do wish this line was a little lower though. New England has been playing way too many close games lately to justify a 13 point line. On the other hand, they are rested and the game is at Foxborough. Jacksonville, however, has a really good power running game. So basically I think Jacksonville could cover, but not win. I could see it being a close game and I could see it being a blowout. This makes it a really tough pick. In the end, you have to go with Belicheck and Brady to cover.

San Diego at Indianapolis (-8)

I don't see San Diego making this a close game. Indy is getting Harrison back and it's at the RCA Dome. Without Gates San Diego has absolutely no shot. LDT looked very pedestrian against Tennessee last week. Now I know Indy's run D is not as good as Tennessee's but it is a respectable unit. No chance Rivers outplays Manning. Thus, the Colts to cover.

New York at Dallas (-7.5)

No one wants to take all the home favorites, but I don't see how I can help it. The Giants must be worn out at the point. Whereas, the Cowboys are well rested and the game is in Dallas. Can the Giants really win two playoff road games in a row? This seems highly unlikely. Owens should play, which to me puts this game over the edge to Dallas who has already beaten New York twice this season. Some people seem to point to Dallas's two wins this season as a disadvantage because "it's so hard to beat a team three times in the same season." This seems like complete nonsense to me. The giants have had two tries to prove they are as good as the dallas and they failed both times. You think the Cowboys are going to let this game slip by and not be prepared? Ridiculous. The cowboys to cover.


Saturday, January 5, 2008

Wild Card Playoff Picks

It's playoff time. I am happy because the playoffs are wildly entertaining, but sad at the same time because it signals the beginning of the end. I am going to have take up fantasy baseball to make the 8 month off-season bearable. Maybe if the Rays can have a decent season. Kazmir-Shields-Garza baby.

Washington at Seattle (-3.5)

Washington has been good the last four weeks, but at the same time they haven't really played anyone. They beat a mediocre (at best) Bears team, beat a brutally inconsistent Giants team, beat the overrated vikings, and then beat a Dallas team that was not trying. Furthermore, they have a senile old man as coach. I give him zero credit for their resurgence. If this game is close he may very well find a way to screw it up. Seattle has not been playing amazing over the last part of the season, but they had everything sealed up so you can't read too much into that. The two most important factors are that they have a lot of playoff experience and the game is at home in what is supposedly the loudest stadium in the nfl. There defense has been good most of the season and Hasselbeck is having one of his best seasons. The only thing that worries me is their poor health at receiver -- Hackett is out and Branch is questionable. Well, that and there non-existent running game. But all in all, I think the Seahawks are a much better team than the Redskins especially in Seattle. Seattle to win and cover.

Jacksonville (-3) at Pittsburgh

While I think Jacksonville could very well win this game, making them a three point favorite at Pittsburgh is a little much. Pittsburgh is a good team with a lot of playoff experience. I know they have suffered some recent injuries (Parker and Aaron Smith), but they still have a decent offense. davenport isn't that much of a downgrade from Parker and Big Ben is a solid NFL starting QB. The only thing that worries me is the pathetic pass protection of the Pittsburgh offensive line. How do these guys keep making pro bowls when Big Ben is getting pressured every time he drops back? Spicer and Stroud may each register a couple of sacks. Jacksonville has been great lately but other than Freddy Taylor they lack a lot of playoff experience. Furthermore, they will be coming into a hostile environment where the field conditions will be suspect at best. Both of these factors favor Pittsburgh who has a more of a power running game than Jacksonville. Garrard may have to win this game for Jville and I am not sure if he can do it. Don't get me wrong I am huge Garrard fan, but he is unproven in the playoffs. My heart says he can do it, but my head says to play it safe and take Pittsburgh. So I'll take Pittsburgh and the points.

New York at Tampa (-3)
I am, of course, a big Bucs fan. I don't think they are particularly good this year, but I don't think I can pick against them when they are at Tampa. Gruden is a super bowl coach, the defense is playing well, and garcia has been good in the playoffs. That is enough for me to pick them over the horrendously inconsistent Giants who have a bevy on injury problems. Eli will get pressured and he will make some bad decisions and the Bucs will capitalize. On a slightly unrelated note, did anyone else see that Peter King names Jeremy Trueblood to his all pro team. This absolutely shocked me. I know the guy has been decent, but an all pro. Wow. I'm guessing he's not going to get to many other votes. Bucs to cover.

Tennessee at San Diego (-10)
This is a very large line. Tennessee is of course awful. They have an awful quaterback be it Vince Young or Kerry Collins. There running game is mediocre and there defense is decent, but it seems like haynesworth isn't at full strength. San Diego is peaking. I think Turner did a good job not running LDT to death in the regular season. He looks fresh and I expect big things from him. It's in san Diego and these two teams appear to be headed in opposite direction so I will take the Chargers to cover.